The world faced the combined impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruption of supply chains when Russia started its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a peaceful and sovereign country, on February 24, 2022. Because of the pandemic, an additional 161 million people worldwide already faced hunger in 2020. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a ripple effect across the globe. The war is now in its third month: thousands of civilians have been killed, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced—most of whom have sought refuge in neighboring countries—public and private infrastructures have been destroyed, and cities and villages have been reduced to ruins. These refugees, and those who stay in Ukraine, face even greater food insecurity and require immediate international humanitarian assistance. The international community, led by the United States and the members of the European Union, condemned and responded to the invasion by implementing strong economic sanctions on Russia, imposing severe economic consequences on the nation. The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly condemned Russia for the invasion and suspended it from the United Nations Human Rights Council.
The global community is feeling the consequences of the war—not only its direct effects on the Ukrainian people, but also its disruption of the global food supply. Both Russia and Ukraine are net exporters of agricultural products, particularly wheat, corn, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil, whereas Russia is among the top exporters of nitrogen, potassic, and phosphorous fertilizers. In Ukraine, the war has already destroyed major public infrastructure, including roads, bridges, ports, airports, railways, and other agricultural infrastructure. Furthermore, maritime instability in the Baltic Sea has disrupted access to the ports in the region. Millions of tons of grains are blocked at the Ukraine port of Odessa. The impacts of this war have thus endangered access to and transportation of these agricultural products and, consequently, affect global food security.
Since 2020, global agricultural commodity prices have skyrocketed to near-record levels. Associated markets had already been competing with increased global demand and the high energy and fertilizer prices. The war in Ukraine is the latest factor worsening the global food supply. African countries are the most vulnerable because they are dependent on food imports. The food import bill for Africa has been rising over the past decades, amounting to $35 billion a year—or 85% of its food needs. The war on Ukraine has further complicated factors that affect food security in Africa, such as volatile energy prices, the global agricultural commodity prices, and the cost of fertilizers.
1. Global commodity prices
The series of lockdowns and restrictions—measures taken due to the COVID-19 pandemic—have led to global inflation and the disruption of supply chains. In April 2022, the FAO Food Prices Index reached an all-time high, up 12.6% from February, and the Cereal Price Index skyrocketed to its highest level since 1990. The war in Ukraine is the latest aggravating factor among these global challenges. Most African countries feel the consequences of the high food prices, not just the states that are dependent on imported wheat from Ukraine and Russia. In 2020, the importation cost of the three main cereals to African nations—wheat, rice, and corn—was valued at 24 billion USD, of which wheat expenditure represented over 54%, followed by rice and corn at 27% and 19%, respectively. Most African households’ diets include at least one of these cereals, as well as other agricultural products.
Almost half of the countries in Africa depend on wheat imported from both Ukraine and Russia, and 16 African countries import more than 50% of their needs from these two countries. The war has severely disrupted the wheat supply in Egypt, Somalia, Benin, Sudan, DRC, Senegal, Tanzania, Rwanda, Madagascar, and Republic of Congo. More than 60% of these countries’ wheat supply comes from Russia and Ukraine—and even though they are the main suppliers, wheat is not necessarily the main staple food for all of the aforementioned African countries. For instance, wheat is the main staple food in Egypt, whereas for Senegal it is rice. The Senegalese people could increase their intake of rice to complement the need for wheat as a coping strategy, yet the government of Egypt must find new suppliers to address the demand for the cereal. Diet changes could be a legitimate alternative for Egypt, but changing eating behaviors is both challenging and time-consuming. The consequences of the war vary in Africa, but the rising global food prices are the main factor affecting food security in these food import–dependent countries.
2. Rising energy prices
Even before the war, the price of energy had already spiked and was felt mostly in transportation, utilities, and fuel. Rising energy prices cause a chain reaction, raising the cost of goods and services— including and especially the cost of producing and distributing locally produced food. In poorer countries, households spend the highest share of their incomes on food and energy. As a result, the rise in local food prices, combined with the cost of imported food, reduces food intake for extremely poor households and pushes other vulnerable people into poverty. With limited resources, the government cannot even mitigate the effects of rising food prices by running government food assistance programs. Consequently, the only available mitigating option for these vulnerable households is to reduce, or even to skip, meals. Thus, the surge in energy prices is an immediate threat to food security for African countries.
3. The fertilizer prices
The increased price of natural gas, a key ingredient in fertilizer, is pushing up the price of fertilizer. The war has already disrupted wheat production in Ukraine, particularly for the spring planting season. Yet the price of fertilizer is rising worldwide, and thus the cost of crop production is increasing globally and jeopardizing agricultural production. There are a few large farms in Africa, but small-scale farming dominates agriculture. Because of the rising cost of fertilizer and energy, the cost of agricultural production is increasing for large-scale and small-scale farmers alike.
However, another challenge looms for small-scale farmers. The average fertilizer consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa is still extremely low at 17kg/ha, compared to the world average of 135kg/ha. Even though the use of fertilizer is low, the soaring prices of fertilizer are affecting the promotion of agricultural productivity. High fertilizer prices jeopardize and work against recent progress in increasing the average rate of application of fertilizer at the small-scale farming level. The progress achieved in production yield and the fertilizer adoption rate may stall, if not reverse, leading to long-term impacts on agricultural production overall, especially cereal production. The future of food security on the continent depends on small-scale farmers. Thus, the specific characteristics of Africa’s agricultural production should not be overlooked in the context of the war in Ukraine.
To conclude, Africa remains a net food importer and is vulnerable to the surge in global commodity prices and the disruption of the global supply chains. The spike in food prices, coupled with the consequences of the war in Ukraine, has immediate and long-term effects on food security in Africa. Likely, millions of people will be pushed into poverty and hunger due to the current global context, worsening the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Photo by Igor Karimov UA on Unsplash